The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened slightly higher at the night session's opening and fluctuated upward, while downstream and end-user enterprises showed low acceptance of the current high prices. [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on November 27, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2601) opened slightly higher in the night session and fluctuated upward, closing at 298,500 yuan/mt, up 0.86% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Under the UK's budget measures, owners of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles will be subject to a mileage tax. Documents show that starting from April 2028, EV owners will pay 3 pence per mile, while plug-in hybrid owners will pay 1.5 pence per mile. This measure is expected to raise 1.4 billion pounds (approximately $1.8 billion) annually by the end of the decade. A regulatory body estimates that this change will reduce EV sales by 440,000 units in the coming years. Delvin Lane, CEO of charging company InstaVolt, stated, "Introducing such a system at this stage may add new costs and deter drivers considering switching to EVs." (2) According to data from the Passenger Car Association, from November 1-23, retail sales in the national passenger vehicle market reached 1.384 million units, down 11% YoY and down 2% MoM. Cumulative retail sales from the beginning of the year reached 20.64 million units, up 6% YoY. Wholesale sales from passenger vehicle producers during the same period were 1.69 million units, down 8% YoY but up 8% MoM. Cumulative wholesale sales from the beginning of the year reached 25.464 million units, up 11% YoY. From November 1-23, retail sales in the new energy passenger vehicle market were 849,000 units, up 3% YoY and up 8% MoM. Cumulative retail sales from the beginning of the year reached 10.998 million units, up 20% YoY. Wholesale sales of new energy vehicles from producers during the same period were 995,000 units, up 4% YoY and up 13% MoM. Cumulative wholesale sales from the beginning of the year reached 13.051 million units, up 27% YoY. (3) According to the latest survey by TrendForce, in the third quarter of 2025, due to rising contract prices for conventional DRAM, a quarter-on-quarter increase in shipments, and the expansion of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) shipment scale, DRAM industry revenue grew 30.9% from the previous quarter, reaching $41.4 billion. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, TrendForce expects final conventional DRAM contract prices to increase 45–50% QoQ, and overall contract prices for conventional DRAM and HBM combined to rise 50–55%.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply in major production areas such as Yunnan is tightening overall. Most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Orders have significantly decreased due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream procurement remained cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption. Emerging sectors provided limited boost: although the increase in AI computing power and the growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in consumption from traditional sectors.

Spot market: Overall trading activity in the spot market remained sluggish, with most traders reporting almost no transactions, and only a small amount of just-in-time procurement taking place. Downstream and end-user enterprises showed low acceptance of the current high prices, largely adopting a wait-and-see stance.

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